Russian Leaders to Meet with Milosevic -- 03/29/1999

Russian Leaders to Meet with Milosevic

29 March, 1999

By Lawrence Morahan
CNS Staff Writer

(CNS) – With almost half the Kosovo population on the move – some 4,000 refugees fleeing rampaging Serbian forces reportedly are streaming into Albania every hour – and the NATO air campaign against the Serbs continuing, Russian President Boris Yeltsin has ordered his three top government ministers to Belgrade on a diplomatic mission.

Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev head to the Yugoslav capital for talks Tuesday with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Their agenda will include ways to end the crisis and halt the U.S.-led NATO air blitz, now entering its second phase with the deployment of the A – 10 "Warthog," a heavily-armed aircraft designed to knock out an estimated 300 Serbian tanks operating in Kosovo.

Russian observers expect Milosevic will ask the Kremlin for military assistance. Primakov has stated publicly he has not yet broken the arms embargo imposed by NATO, hinting he would consider supplying Milosevic, said Keith Bush, director of the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, in an interview with CNS.

"The Russians have warned of taking 'unspecified measures' against NATO, one of which certainly is to supply the Yugoslavs, especially in the anti-aircraft field," Bush said.

Russia would supply the Milosevic regime despite the fact that Russia was part of the original contact group that drafted the Rambouillet peace accords, which Milosevic rejected, Bush said. The only thing that has prevented them until now is the risk of interception by the allies. If Primakov could find a secure way to supply Milosevic – whether by air, sea or land – he would jump at the chance of sticking his thumb in the eye of NATO, Bush said.

"Primakov loves sticking thumbs in people's eyes, especially the United States'. It's certainly conceivable, if NATO continues its campaign and Milosevic tries to hold out," Bush said.

Opposition to the NATO campaign against Serbian forces is running so high in Russia it supercedes news of Russia's success in obtaining a new credit package Monday from the International Monetary Fund. The new agreement is also expected to open the door to Japanese and World Bank credits, which means Russia will have a better chance of raising more money through commercial markets and through G – 7 countries. Russia was facing the prospect of having to default on a $17.5 billion servicing debt, or on parts of it, which is coming due this year.

Russian opposition to the NATO air campaign even exceeds its opposition to NATO expansion, which Moscow protested earlier this month, Bush said.

"They were expecting NATO expansion and they protested it, but it wasn't so vehement. This is a very vehement protest, not only by Primakov and Yeltsin and so fourth," but by ordinary Russians and by political moderates, Bush said. Russians feel impotent and are raging against this. "They have this complex about losing their great-power status," Bush said.

"Loss of empire and relegation almost to third power status has touched a chord among otherwise moderate people, not only from the executive presidential office, but also from the Duma and the Federation Council, and from six of the CIS member states," Bush said.

Meanwhile the State Department said Monday there were indications "genocide is enfolding in Kosovo" as President Clinton worked to maintain allied support for the broadening air offensive in Yugoslavia.

Spokesman James Rubin raised the specter of war-crimes trials, going so far as to say Milosevic could be held accountable and subject to imprisonment for life. "We have no doubt that he bears political responsibility" for the killing and uprooting of civilians, Rubin said.

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