Timing of Primakov Visit 'Couldn't be Worse' -- 03/23/1999

Timing of Primakov Visit 'Couldn't be Worse'

23 March, 1999

By Lawrence Morahan
CNS Staff Writer

(CNS) – As Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov begins his visit to Washington Wednesday, his host, President Clinton, is getting ready to give the go-ahead for U.S. and other NATO troops to strike Yugoslav forces in Kosovo, despite strong opposition by Russia.

While the main topic on Primakov's agenda is to enlist Clinton's support in pressuring the International Monetary Fund to extend new credits to Russia, the emerging crisis in Kosovo threatens to dominate the agenda of the two leaders and could have far reaching effects on their future relations.

"The timing of the visit could scarcely be worse," Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, told CNS. If the United States gives the go-ahead for air strikes while Primakov is visiting, "the message that's going to convey is that we consider Russia to be utterly irrelevant in terms of its wishes in the Balkans, and that's not the message we ought to convey," Carpenter said.

Meanwhile Clinton condemned the attacks by Serb forces against Kosovo Albanian separatists. Serbs have attacked villages, executed suspected rebels and drove tens of thousands of defenseless refugees into the hills and forests after international monitors moved out.

"If [Yugoslav] President Milosevic continues to choose aggression over peace, NATO's military plans must continue to move forward," Clinton said in a statement Monday. "There is strong unity among the NATO allies; we all agree that we cannot allow President Milosevic to continue the aggression with impunity."

Thousands of people have died and more than a quarter of a million people have been forced to flee to neighboring Balkan countries, endangering stability in the region, Clinton said.

If it is not possible for the Western allies to protect the Kosovars from Serb attacks by peaceful means, "we have to be prepared to act," Clinton said.

Conservatives and political analysts have expressed reservations about the advisability of direct U.S. involvement in the Balkans, and specifically about the deployment of U.S. ground troops as part of a NATO force in Kosovo.

The United States may not like what Milosevic is doing, but it is scarcely different from what a lot of other countries have done who have also faced secessionist rebellions, Carpenter said.

"There's a limit to how far Milosevic can go in terms of compromising before hardliners in Belgrade remove him from power, and they're close to that point already. If he gives up Kosovo without so much as a fight we might be very well dealing with someone other than Milosevic who is likely to be far less accommodating," Carpenter said.

Ethnic and religious ties between Russians and Slavs also should not be underestimated. The religious factor – both are Slavic people and predominantly Eastern Orthodox in religion – has emerged as a very important factor in their relationship after the communist era.

Russia and Yugoslavia enjoyed significant economic ties during the post World War II era of Yugoslav President Tito, and Russia saw Serbia as an important economic ally once the Tito era passed, economic analysts said.

"It is ironic that we have demanded that Russia give up economic ties to two of it most important customers – Iraq and Serbia – and from the Russian standpoint they really haven't gotten much in return," Carpenter said.

Writing Russia out of the equation as it considers pressing ahead with attacks on Yugoslav forces would not be in Washington's best interests and not without possible negative consequences.

Russia already has taken actions that ought to make the United States very uneasy – its growing ties with Iran and the transfers of nuclear-related technology to that country. Its rapidly-growing strategic ties with China, and lower profile actions which can be very dangerous, such as arms sales to Cyprus, Carpenter said.

"Russia, for very little cost or risk to itself, found a way to create enormous trouble between two NATO allies – Greece and Turkey – and therefore within NATO itself," Carpenter said.

"We'll see more of that if we keep treating Russia as though it is irrelevant and we don't have to care what Moscow thinks. Even a weak adversary can cause lots of problems for the United States if it is determined to do so," Carpenter said.

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